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Russia's Potential Cut in Grain Exports Won't Lead to Major Problems in Europe, Expert Says_我的网站

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A | 新的一周，天气也将迎来新变化。杭州在经历了连续几天的强降雨后，昨天终于进入尾声。 Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Friday that the country might be forced to take some 50 million tonnes of grain off the market after this year’s crops fell short of the 130 million tonne target.,"I don't expect major problems in Europe in both categories of grain, for cattle breeding and for human consumption, since this year's crops were excellent despite the drought at the end of the season. The problems, if they arise, will be in the Middle East and Africa, and maybe in some countries of Southeast Asia," Gisele Fichefet said.,The only problem facing Europe, Fichefet said further, is a low nitrogen content of the wheat crop in many places, which means it will not be used in the baking industry but only for livestock feed.,Russia was the world's top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers in 2021, the most valued variety, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Many European and Central Asian countries rely on Russia for over 50% of their fertilizer supply, and shortages are expected to extend to next year.,Russia is also the world's largest exporter of wheat, with Ukraine in fifth place. Together, the two countries account for more than one-third of global cereal exports and a half of the world's sunflower oil export market.,FAO predicted in March that supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine could affect some 50 countries that depend on the two for 30% or more of their wheat supply. Many of them are low-income countries in northern Africa, Asia and the Near East.,AfricaAnti-Russia Sanctions Left Africa Without Access to Grain and Fertilisers, African Union Chief Says3 June, 11:13 GMT,Fichefet said it was "not so much a price problem, as a delivery issue" because price fluctuations had not been more than 20% up or down since the start of the Ukrainian conflict. A UN-brokered deal among Russia, Ukraine and Turkey has at least temporarily stabilized the prices. That may change if Russia slashes grain exports, she predicted.,The West has repeatedly accused Russia of undermining global food security. Moscow argues that Western sanctions on financial transactions and maritime transportation have disrupted global food supply chains, curbing the access of Russian food products and fertilizers to markets. The deal, agreed in Istanbul in July, seeks to facilitate the transport of grain and foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports, while simultaneously addressing limits on Russian exports.。今天起，副热带高压加强西伸，杭州将从前几天较大范围的阵雨或雷雨天气，转为以午后分散性雷阵雨为主，天气也将逐渐回归夏日熟悉的节奏。预计杭州今天多云，午后局部有短时阵雨或雷雨，东北风3级阵风4~5级，白天最高气温34℃，早晨最低气温26℃。今天沿海和浙南雨水继续“发力”刚刚过去的双休日，浙江的天气舞台依旧“不平静”。上周六，全省除湖州、嘉兴外大部分地区出现暴雨，局地大暴雨；上周日，雨水继续，午后“散装暴雨”在浙南和沿海地区“大展拳脚”。截至昨天15时，近3小时累计雨量前三名分别是：温州平阳县麻步华亭站94.8毫米、温州平阳县萧江塔下站77.8毫米、温州苍南县马站下魁站76.9毫米。今天，浙江沿海和浙南的雨水丝毫没有“收手”的意思，继续“发力”，部分地区中到大雨，局地暴雨，个别地区大暴雨，势头依然不容小觑。接下来天气舞台要迎来新变化。浙江省气象服务中心预计，随着副热带高压加强西伸，低层偏东气流趁机输送水汽，18日至19日沿海地区多阵雨或雷雨“打卡”；其他地区则维持“多云+午后雷阵雨”的夏日经典配方。20日至22日，受季风倒槽影响，浙南和沿海地区的雨水“排班”依然密集，阵雨或雷雨不时来“报到”。熬到23日，随着副热带高压继续加强，雨水终于肯“休假”了，全省统一切换为“多云+午后分散性雷阵雨”模式，洗晒出行都能从容不少。

B | 海上或有台风酝酿说完雨水，再来看看气温。

C | 昨天雨水联手冷空气，把高温“压”得毫无还手之力，浙江高温昨天“全军覆没”，无一突破35℃高温线。

D | 丽水34.7℃就能当上“全省最热”；浦江、江山、岱山等地最高气温都不足30℃，多少有点不给“三伏天”面子了。

E | 雨水“退居二线”，高温就准备“补位上岗”。19日起，全省除沿海地区外，大部分地区最高气温将重返34~36℃，暑气卷土重来。好在这次高温还算“低调”，没有一上来就大张旗鼓地“霸屏”，不过闷热感可一点没打折，黏糊糊的体感照样“在线”，大家防暑降温的功课还得继续做足。另外，海上或仍有台风酝酿。中国气象频道气象分析师信欣说，目前中北太平洋的飓风“拉娜”（Lala），正在从夏威夷岛南侧近海掠过。未来它将继续西行，不排除进入西北太平洋获得台风编号的可能性，如果成真，到时它会保留原有的名字。另外西北太平洋上，有两个热带扰动92W和93W。相对偏东，距离我们更远的92W，未来有可能发展为新的台风；相对偏西的93W，目前结构不对称，中心附近对流弱，北侧对流强，后期很难发展成型。科普一下台风和飓风到底有什么区别？从形成的原理来看，台风和飓风是一样的，都是热带气旋大家族的成员，只是出生地和活动区域不同。台风主要是指在西北太平洋和南海生成及活动的热带气旋；飓风是指在中东太平洋和北大西洋上生成及活动、并达到一定强度的热带气旋。